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http://www.demconvention.com/a/2007/03/how_to_become_a.html

Iowa, Jan. 3; New Hampshire, Jan.8; Nevada, Jan.19; South Carolina, Jan.19 & 26
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Posted December 14th, 2007 by wanbligi in Politics
USINFO > Current Issues
12 December 2007

Presidential Campaigns Focus Efforts on Early Primary States
Local journalists closely analyzing four competitive January contests

Washington -- With the first primaries and caucuses in the 2008 presidential race right around the corner, the candidates are focusing on states that hold the earliest contests.

This means the candidates are spending much of the remainder of 2007 in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina -- all of which will hold their nominating contests in January. Candidates hope that victories in these states will provide the momentum for victories in the primaries and caucuses that will follow in February and March.

Journalists from these four important states analyzed the races at a forum hosted by the Politico newspaper at George Washington University December 6 in Washington. With such close races, anything can happen, they agreed.

Another contest in January is not receiving much attention -- a Democratic primary in Michigan on January 15. Democratic candidates have pledged not to campaign there because the state party changed the primary date in defiance of national party directive. This action robs the Michigan primary of any significance in the race for the Democratic nomination. (See related article.)

IOWA, JANUARY 3

Among Democrats, most polls suggest the race is a three-way tie among Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards. However, according to David Yepsen, a political columnist for the Des Moines Register, 48 percent of Democrats say they still could change their mind.

"The Democrats are having a tough time deciding what they want to do here because they like all these candidates," Yepsen said.

Yepsen said caucus-goers traditionally are interested in electing an experienced leader, but recently Iowa voters have seemed eager for change, a shift that would help Obama, a first-term senator, get support.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee now leads most polls, although some polls report him in a statistical tie with Mitt Romney. About half the Republican caucus-goers say they could be persuaded to change their minds, Yepsen said. "The difference between Republicans and Democrats … is Republicans aren't excited about any of their candidates."

As is the case in many U.S. political contests, turnout is expected to be a key factor, Yepsen said. He added that a lower turnout for the caucuses likely would benefit Huckabee, because his supporters seem very loyal and highly motivated.

Iowa voters "take their sweet time in deciding. … [T]he game can break late as a result," Yepsen said. Yepsen said one of the most important influences will be "Christmas dinner and New Year's parties where families and friends get together to talk about what they're going to do at the caucus."

Having a caucus so soon after the holidays brings challenges for the candidates, who will have to shut down their campaigns on Christmas Day and limit their television attack ads so as not to appear too negative during the holiday season, Yepsen said.

NEW HAMPSHIRE, JANUARY 8

With New Hampshire holding its primary five days after the Iowa caucuses, there is less time than usual between what is seen as two of the most crucial nominating contests. "That is going to make the candidates' reactions to the Iowa results very important," said Andrew Cline, editorial page editor for the New Hampshire Union Leader. "They've got to respond quickly, and they've got to do a lot of one-on-one events in a short period of time."

Republican presidential candidate John McCain campaigns in Peterborough, New Hampshire. (© AP Images)These one-on-one events are key because many voters in this small state base their choices on their interactions with the candidates, Cline said. About half of New Hampshire voters will meet a candidate.

Democrat Clinton and Republican Romney long have been leading their parties’ fields of candidates in this state. However, Clinton's lead over Obama has narrowed considerably in recent polls. Cline said that about two-thirds of voters in both parties say they are not committed firmly to a candidate.

If Clinton and Romney lose Iowa, Cline said, "they will have to come to New Hampshire and make the case for why they can win the nomination."

Clinton likely will face her biggest challenge from Obama. On the Republican side, John McCain's campaign in New Hampshire has been re-energized by an endorsement from the Union Leader.

NEVADA, JANUARY 19

The Nevada caucuses will be influenced by what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire, said J. Patrick Coolican, a politics reporter for the Las Vegas Sun.

Even though the Nevada caucuses have received little media attention thus far, Americans will be watching more closely if two different candidates win Iowa and New Hampshire in either party’s races, Coolican said.

For the Democratic nomination, Clinton, having gained many endorsements, is leading most Nevada polls, but Obama also is running a successful campaign, Coolican said.

One important group that could influence the Nevada Democratic caucus is the Culinary Workers Union. The powerful 60,000-member union, which represents a large number of Las Vegas casino employees, has decided not to endorse a candidate until after the Iowa caucuses.

Polls show a mixed picture of the Republican race -- some show Rudy Giuliani ahead, some show Romney leading and others report a statistical tie between the two.

SOUTH CAROLINA, JANUARY 19 and 26

The Republicans will hold their primary on January 19; the Democrats on January 26. It is the first state primary with a sizable African-American population -- about half of Democratic voters will be black.

Although Clinton enjoys a slight lead in most polls, Obama has a slight edge in African-American support, said Lee Bandy, a political columnist for The State newspaper in Columbia, South Carolina.

With the Republicans, Huckabee has a slight lead in most polls, but faces close competition from several other candidates. About 40 percent of South Carolina voters are Evangelical Christians, making them an important group for Republicans to reach.

Since South Carolina began holding primaries in 1980, no Republican won the presidential nomination without first winning the South Carolina primary.

Citing these South Carolina polls, Bandy said that in his 40-year career in South Carolina, "I've never seen a presidential race that close."

(USINFO is produced by the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)

wanbligi's blog Add new comment
Presidential Primaries
On December 16th, 2007 wanbligi said:
Presidential Primaries Calendar 2008 Add to MyNCSL
2008 Presidential Primary Calendar
Last updated November 8, 2007

As it stands right now 33 states will hold presidential primaries or caucuses on or before February 5, with 23 of these contests to be held on February 5. The following lists presents candidate selection process in date order. A list in state order is also available. All dates are subject to change, and a handful of states, including Michigan and New Hampshire, are virtually certain to change their dates.

Date

State

Party

Primary/Caucus

January 3
Iowa
D&R
Caucuses

January 5
Wyoming
R
County Convention

January 15
Michigan
D&R
Primary

January 19
Nevada
D&R
Caucuses

January 19
South Carolina
R
Primary

January 22
New Hampshire
D&R
Primary

January 25
Hawaii
R
Caucuses (1/25-2/7)

January 29
Florida
D&R
Primary

January 29
South Carolina
D
Primary

February 1
Maine
R
Caucuses (2/1-2/3)

February 5
Alabama
D&R
Primary

February 5
Alaska
D&R
Caucuses

February 5
Arizona
D&R
Primary

February 5
Arkansas
D&R
Primary

February 5
California
D&R
Primary

February 5
Colorado
D&R
Caucuses

February 5
Connecticut
D&R
Primary

February 5
Delaware
D&R
Primary

February 5
Georgia
D&R
Primary

February 5
Idaho
D
Caucuses

February 5
Illinois
D&R
Primary

February 5
Kansas
D
Caucuses

February 5
Minnesota
D&R
Caucuses

February 5
Missouri
D&R
Primary

February 5
Montana
R
Caucuses

February 5
New Jersey
D&R
Primary

February 5
New Mexico
D
Primary

February 5
New York
D&R
Primary

February 5
North Dakota
D&R
Caucuses

February 5
Oklahoma
D&R
Primary

February 5
Tennessee
D&R
Primary

February 5
Utah
D&R
Primary

February 5
West Virginia
R
State convention

February 9
Kansas
R
Caucses

February 9
Louisiana
D&R
D-Primary; R-Caucuses

February 9
Nebraska
D
Caucuses

February 9
Washington
D&R
Caucuses

February 10
Maine
D
Caucuses

February 12
District of Columbia
D&R
D-Caucuses; R-Primary

February 12
Maryland
D&R
Primary

February 12
Virginia
D&R
Primary

February 19
Hawaii
D
Caucuses

February 19
Wisconsin
D&R
Primary

March 4
Massachusetts
D&R
Primary

March 4
Rhode Island
D&R
Primary

March 4
Ohio
D&R
Primary

March 4
Texas
D&R
Primary

March 4
Vermont
D&R
Primary

March 8
Wyoming
D
Caucuses

March 11
Mississippi
D&R
Primary

April 22
Pennsylvania
D&R
Primary

May 6
Indiana
D&R
Primary

May 6
North Carolina
D&R
Primary

May 13
Nebraska
R
Advisory-only primary

May 13
West Virginia
D
Primary

May 20
Kentucky
D&R
Primary

May 20
Oregon
D&R
Primary

May 27
Idaho
D&R
D-Non-binding primary; R-Primary

June 3
Montana
D
Primary

June 3
New Mexico
R
Primary

June 3
South Dakota
D&R
Primary

June 28
Nebraska
R
State Convention

Source: All data gathered by NCSL from state election officials, state parties, selected press coverage, and http://www.thegreenpapers.com/.

For more information, contact Jennie Drage Bowser in NCSL's Denver office.

edit reply
How do caucuses work?
On December 16th, 2007 wanbligi said:
How do caucuses work?

Presidential election primaries and caucuses are two very different methods of accomplishing the same basic thing. Simply put, they are both a means for each political party to let voters nationwide select their party's presidential nominee. More specifically, primaries and caucuses are means of selecting delegates (representatives of party members in each state) to send to the party's national convention.
At each party's national convention (held the summer before the presidential election), the party selects a presidential nominee based on how party delegates at the convention vote. The Republican and Democratic parties in each state select delegates based on either caucuses or a primary vote in that state -- the delegates are sent to represent voters in the state.

At the Democratic convention, the number of state delegates is proportional to the number of votes received in the state primary or caucus. The Republican Party uses a winner-take-all system in which the delegate or candidate with the most votes in a state's primary or caucus wins the right to be represented by all of the party's delegates at the national convention. The total number of delegates each party can send to the national convention is again dictated by party rules. Usually the party determines the number of delegates through a formula factoring in state population, the number of elected officials in office, and that state's past support of party candidates.

Federal law doesn't dictate how states choose their delegates, so individual states decide what system to use. Most states use the primary system - where voters statewide simply cast a vote for the candidate they support -- but some use the older caucus system.

The term caucus apparently comes from an Algonquin word meaning "gathering of tribal chiefs," and the main crux of the caucus system today is indeed a series of meetings. To see how this works, let's look at the Iowa caucuses -- the first "voting event" of the presidential election year.

In Iowa, the caucuses themselves are local party precinct meetings where registered Republicans and Democrats gather, discuss the candidates and vote for their candidate of choice for their party's nomination (Iowa caucuses actually occur every two years - in non-presidential-election years, participants generally discuss party platform issues). In both parties, the purpose of the caucus vote is to select delegates to attend a county convention -- each caucus sends a certain number of delegates, based on the population it represents. The delegates at the county convention in turn select delegates to go to the congressional district state convention, and those delegates choose the delegates that go to the national convention.

The Republican caucus voting system in Iowa is relatively straightforward: You come in, you vote, typically through secret ballot, and the percentages of the group supporting each candidate decides what delegates will go on to the county convention.

The Democrats have a more complex system -- in fact, it's one of the most complex pieces of the entire presidential election. In a typical caucus, registered democrats gather at the precinct meeting places (there are 1,993 precincts statewide), supporters for each candidate have a chance to make their case, and then the participants gather into groups supporting particular candidates (undecided voters also cluster into a group). In order for a particular group to be viable, they must have a certain percentage of the all the caucus participants. If they don't have enough people, the group disbands, and its members go to another group. The percentage cut-off is determined by the number of delegates assigned to the precinct. It breaks down like this:

If the precinct has only one delegate, the group with the most people wins the delegate vote, and that's it.
If the precinct has only two delegates, each group needs 25 percent to be viable.
If the precinct has only three delegates, each group needs one-sixth of the caucus participants.
If the precinct has four or more delegates, each group needs at least 15 percent of the caucus participants.
Once the groups are settled, the next order of business is to figure out how many of that precinct's delegates each group (and by extension, each candidate) should win. Here's the formula:

(Number of people in the group * number of delegates)/ number of caucus participants
For example, say a precinct has four delegates, 200 caucus participants, and 100 people support John Doe. To figure out how many delegates you assign to John Doe, you would multiply 100 by four, to get 400. You divide 400 by 200 and get 2. So John Doe gets two of the four delegates.

The media reports the "winner," based on the percentage of delegates going to each candidate. This isn't exactly accurate, since it's actually the state convention that decides what delegates go to the national convention, but more often than not, there's a clear statewide winner after the caucuses.

The convoluted caucus system dates back to 1796, when American political parties emerged, and it hasn't changed a whole lot since then. Most states eventually replaced this system, because as political parties became more centralized and sophisticated in the early twentieth century, party leaders or "bosses" were perceived as exerting too much control over choosing a nominee. To give individual voters more influence over the nomination process, party leaders created the presidential primary system. Florida held the first primary in 1901 marking the beginning of the presidential primary we know today.

Dramatic caucus reforms and rules that the Democratic Party instituted at the state level in the 1970s changed the system significantly. Designed to improve and open up caucuses to all party members, the requirements actually made caucuses more difficult to manage and inadvertently led to the rise of primaries. To help states coordinate the election days of both parties, the Republicans also changed their system.

Here are some interesting links:

Mississippi Secretary of State -- Call for Overhaul of Presidential Primary System
The Graduated Random Presidential Primary System -- The California Plan 2003
Iowa Caucus 2002 -- FAQ
MSNBC -- How the Iowa Caucuses Work
Communication in the Presidential Primaries: Candidates and the Media 1912 -2000
Encyclopedia Americana: The American Presidency
PBS NewsHour Extra: Lesson -- The Presidential Nominating System
Project Vote Smart - How Does the Primary Process Work?
DC Vote -- DC Holds Early Non-Binding Election
The American Journalism Review -- The Crowded Bus
FEC: 2004 Presidential Primary Dates
New Hampshire Primary
Rock the Vote
The Democratic National Committee
The Republican National Committee