Florida: No Cheating!

Real "Gangstas" use the refs when they cheat... & I am not talking about Barack Obama.
One minute left in the 4th quarter; Hillary has the ball. Don't let her score.

The Score 4th
Hillary 35
Obama 38
P.S.
"Gorestas!!"

Let's sing Florida 'oh' Floorida! all at the same time; as loud as you can!!

The Art of War
http://www.chinapage.com/sunzi-e.html

Not a tie
by kos Wed
Feb 06, 2008 at 02:34:55 PM PST: We still don't know who won the delegate count, but it should be obvious that the race has shifted and that the Clinton campaign is reeling and Obama is now the front-runner.
Obama is going to lead in pledged delegates after Super Tuesday, something that the Clinton campaign does not dispute:
Hillary advisers also disputed the Obama camp's claim of a lead among delegates, arguing that they were ahead when you factor in superdelegates.
Well, whoop dee doo that you lead in super delegates, considering that most of those enodrsements were racked up when your campaign was the clear frontrunner. After this weekend, when three of the four states, and 126 of the 185 pledged delegates, are determined via caucuses (and the rest are in primaries with high African-American populations), Obama will stretch out his pledged delegate lead further. On Tuesday, no matter who actually wins the popular vote in Virginia, Obama will stretch out his pledged delegate lead even further than that by racking up large wins in D.C. and probably Maryland. And then, on February 19th, there is another caucus in Hawaii, and a primary in the non-partisan registration state of Obama's neighboring Wisconsin. Yes indeed, the February calendar is very favorable to Obama.
A campaign that is now on course to be down by more than 100 pledged delegates in two weeks didn't "tie." Just like Mitt Romney, any campaign that is talking about changing delegate allocation rules didn't "tie." A campaign that is plugging its website to try and raise money didn't "tie." A campaign that talks about stopping the momentum currently enjoyed by its opponent didn't "tie." That is a campaign back on its heels. As I wrote last night, this was not a tie, and Obama clearly has the edge.
Here is my pre-Super Tuesday look at what each campaign needed to do yesterday, and what would follow:
For Obama, his task for Tuesday is simply to survive. He needs to finish within 200 delegates of Clinton to keep it close, because the rest of the month is tailor made for Obama -- Louisiana primary and Nebraska and Washington caucuses on Saturday, February 9th, Maine caucuses on Sunday February 10, the Beltway Primary on February 12 -- DC, Maryland, and Virginia, and Hawaii and Wisconsin the next Tuesday, February 19. Of those states, only Maine might prove kind to Hillary (though we haven't had any polling since October of last year, when Hillary had a commanding 46-10 lead). The rest -- 563 delegates' worth of contests, will favor Obama heavily.
So Hillary's task is to defeat Obama decisively on Tuesday. If she can't manage that, then her plan B is to survive February to fight in March. On Tuesday the 4th, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont go to the polls. Vermont appears the most competitive right now, though that will change with a couple of weeks to campaign in these states. Winning Ohio, in particular will be important for propaganda purposes.
Tiny Wyoming will go on Saturday March 8, with its 18 delegates perhaps actually mattering. Mississippi, with its 40 delegates, should be Obama territory on the 11th. Then...
Absolutely nothing for six weeks until Pennsylvania on April 22. Shit. Atrios and Booman may actually have a say this primary. How scary is that? And those 188 delegates will loom large. In fact, this is the only contest of significance (not including Guam) for an entire two months. It'll be huge.
After that, another two weeks pass until Tuesday May 6, when 218 delegates are at stake in Indiana and North Carolina. A week later, 39 delegates will be decided in West Virginia, a week after that on the 20th, Kentucky and Oregon, and that closes out May. Given the demographics of NC (heavily African American, lots of creative class thanks to the Research Triangle), that'll be Obama territory. Oregon Democrats are heavily "creative class", so lean that one toward Obama. Beats me about West Virginia and Kentucky, though West Virginia was competitive for Obama the last time it was polled in April of 2007, back when he wasn't competitive anywhere (he trailed 37-22, with Edwards getting 19), so that bodes well. Meanwhile, Kentucky has never been polled for the presidential contest, so who knows.
So what's left? Two weeks later, on June 3, Montana and South Dakota select 47 total delegates, and then that Saturday, Puerto Rico closes things out with its 63 delegates up for grabs.
So how will this shake out? Beats me. But task one is for Obama to survive this Tuesday. If he does, task two is for Hillary to survive this month. If she does, then they both have to survive the mini-Super Tuesday on March 4th. If they do, this thing goes to Pennsylvania. Or to North Carolina.
Or to the convention.
Well, Clinton came nowhere near what she needed to do to build a strong delegate lead (and super delegates can change their mind, they're not locked in). Obama needed to survive, and he did more than that -- he outright won the night.
Now his job is to finish off Clinton. If he can rack up a full month of 20%+ victories the rest of this month, he does just that.
People accused me of playing the expectations game before Super Tuesday by lowering the bar to Obama. Hogwash, I'm calling them as I see them. And that last paragraph is proof -- do you think the Obama spin is that he needs to sweep the rest of the month by 20% margins to knock Clinton out? Obviously not.
But if Obama does that, Clinton's money will dry up and the momentum toward the March contests will create an Obama tsunami.
Obama accomplished what he needed to do to survive on Super Tuesday. Now we get to see if Clinton can do what she needs to do to survive February.
p.s. Memo to Penn: Clinton is the establishment candidate. Nice try though.
p.p.s. I'm rerunning this stat Laura wrote up yesterday because I still find it incredible:
States Obama won with (so far) more than 60% of the vote:
Alaska (over 70%)
Colorado
Georgia
Idaho (over 70%)
Illinois
Kansas (over 70%)
Minnesota
North Dakota
States Clinton won with (so far) more than 60% of the vote:
Arkansas
::

The Three Co-Chairs of the DNC Delegate Credentials Committee All Served in Clinton Administration
Submitted by mark karlin on Fri, 02/08/2008 - 6:32am. EditorBlog
BUZZFLASH EDITOR'S BLOG
Mark Karlin, Editor and Publisher, BuzzFlash.com
February 8, 2008
If I've learned one thing this primary season, it's that passion is back among the Democrats for their presidential candidates. Anybody who reads the BuzzFlash Mailbag can see that in an instant. That can be a good thing or a bad thing.
It is the most fundamental sign of health in a democracy to see people so energized and willing to voice their opinions. But if it leads to a split party after the nomination, it would mean four more years of Republican rule and that would not be good for our Constitution and our freedom.
With that in mind, we'll throw some more wood on the fire with this follow-up to our alert yesterday on the likely role of the DNC Credentials Committee in deciding what to do about the unsanctioned Michigan and Florida "primaries." (In our view, they weren't primaries because there was no real campaigning in the states -- and in Michigan only Hillary Clinton's name was on the ballot.)
In January, BuzzFlash proposed one possible solution; some people in the DNC are proposing another. The latter plan would include party caucuses in Michigan and Florida in the early summer. That would be a sensible idea, but the Clinton campaign opposes it. One can assume that they are not happy with Obama's strength in caucus states.
But there may be another reason. If the "results" of the non-primary primaries were upheld by DNC Credentials Committee prior to the convention, and the convention delegates accepted the Credentials Committee recommendation to seat the delegates under the current distribution, Hillary Clinton would likely win the nomination.
According to the Washington Post, mathematically it is almost impossible for either Clinton or Obama to win based on the pledged delegates in the upcoming contests. So, at this moment, it is likely that the superdelegates will potentially decide the winner. But remember that there are still a small number of delegates pledged to other candidates sitting out there. It is possible that Clinton and Obama will end up so close in the delegate count that neither of them will attain the threshold number of delegates needed to be nominated.
That is why the DNC Credentials Committee could play such a pivotal role in terms of a decision regarding the status of the Michigan and Florida delegations, if the Clinton and Obama camps do not agree to caucuses that would allow for a full campaign in each state.
That leads us to the three co-chairs of the DNC Credentials Committee: Alexis Herman, James Roosevelt, Jr. and Aliseo Roques-Arroyo. All three of them served in the Clinton Administration. Okay, as far as we know they are all reputable, upstanding people, but if you were Hillary Clinton and these three people worked for you and your husband during the 8 presidential years Hillary includes on her "35 years of experience," wouldn't you feel like you might have some influence on the three co-chairs? After all, the decision of the DNC Credentials Committee will be political; this is not a judicial process.
According to the official background statements, in a DNC convention committee .pdf file, here are the Clinton connections:
Alexis Herman
Alexis Herman served as U.S.
Secretary of Labor from 1997 to 2001.
Her accomplishments as Labor
Secretary include negotiating between
UPS management and Teamsters
Union leaders, ultimately ending the
ten-day strike. Her extensive political
experience began during the Carter
Administration when she served as the
Director of the Women’s Bureau. In
1980 she left government to become
an entrepreneur and labor relations
expert. Secretary Herman served as
DNC Chief of Staff for Chairman Ron
Brown and later was named CEO of
the 1992 Democratic National
Convention. In 1993, she was
appointed assistant to the President
and Director of the White House public
liaison office. Since 2005, Secretary
Herman has served as a Co-Chair of
the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee
and also served as a Co-Chair of the
Commission on Presidential
Nomination Timing and Scheduling
James Roosevelt, Jr.
Jim Roosevelt is President and CEO of
Tufts Health Plan, a Massachusetts
based HMO. Prior to joining Tufts
Health Plan, Mr. Roosevelt was the
Associate Commissioner for
Retirement Policy of the Social
Security Administration in the Clinton
Administration and a partner in Choate,
Hall & Stewart, specializing in health
care law. Mr. Roosevelt is the chief
legal counsel for the Massachusetts
Democratic Party. Since 1995, he has
served as Co-Chair of the DNC Rules
and Bylaws Committee and has
served as a DNC member since 1980.
Eliseo Roques-Arroyo
A native of Puerto Rico, Eliseo
Roques-Arroyo served as Executive
Assistant to Commonwealth of Puerto
Rico Senate Minority Leader Miguel
Hernandez-Agosto and to Puerto Rico
Delegate to Congress Antonio J.
Colorado. A former Executive Director
of the Democratic Party of Puerto
Rico, Mr. Roques-Arroyo served as a
consultant on travel and advance for
President Clinton from 1998-2000. He
is a graduate of Cornell University and
the Inter American University of Puerto
Rico School of Law. He is presently a
member of the Democratic National
Committee.
(Yes, James Roosevelt, Jr., is the grandson of FDR.)
Politics is politics -- and Hillary Clinton got the luck of the draw in the appointment of the three co-chairs of the Credentials Committee. They were appointed by Howard Dean, we believe, and Dean will be toast as DNC Chairman if Hillary is elected. Although he is neutral, as he should be, in the battle for the nomination, there is no love lost between Dean and the Clinton camp. So, we're no in anyway implying some vast conspiracy here.
It is true that the Credentials Committee itself will consist of many, many people by the time it makes the crucial Michigan/Florida decision, if it comes down to that. Only the core committee has been chosen as of now, so it is impossible to project the political leanings of the committee as a whole. However, there is no doubt that the Clinton camp has the inside advantage when it comes to the three co-chairs.
That's just the reality of the situation.
BUZZFLASH EDITOR'S BLOG